Saudis Clean House in Self-Defense

by James Dunnigan
November 7, 2005

In a surprise move, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has personally directed the retirement of some two dozen senior defense and military officials, including the country’s chief of intelligence. No official reason was given for the move, which becomes effective after the end of Ramadan (November 4th). It’s long been an open secret that many senior Saudi officials were either tolerant of Wahabi radicals, or did not believe they could ever be a threat to the kingdom. Even the al Qaeda terrorist attacks of the last year has not changed many minds at the top. But now the king appears to have made up his mind, and swept away officials and commanders he feels are not on the same page with him when it comes to fighting terrorism. The Saudi king believes al Qaeda must be crushed, before it threatens Sunni Arab domination throughout the region.

But the Saudis see al Qaeda as more than just a terrorist organization. The big Saudi worry is Iran. For over 3,000 years, the Iranians have dominated the region. This, more than anything else, is why the proud, and xenophobic Saudis cling to their alliance with the infidel United States (and other Western nations). Saddam Hussein was never seen as a major problem for Saudi Arabia, because Saddam could be depended on to fight hard if the Iranians tried to move into Arabia. The same cannot be said for the democratic leaders of post-Saddam Iraq. The new leaders are mainly Shia, the sect of Islam practiced in Iran. The Shia are the majority in Iraq, and over ten percent of the Saudi population. Saudis openly talk of the “Shia menace.”

This is one reason for the hostility between the new Iraq, and the Saudis. The Iraqi Shias have long memories, and they have been getting the short end of things for a long time. While the Shia Arabs of Iraq also fear the Iranians (who may be Shia, but are not Arab, but Indo-Europeans, an important distinction in this part of the world), they will accept Iranian help in keeping the Sunni Arabs from taking control of Iraq once more.

All of the Sunni Arab nations in the Middle East are hostile to the new Iraqi government, and are willing to overlook al Qaeda activities, to a certain extent, if that will help bring Sunni Arabs back to power in Iraq. This causes some strange situations. Take Syria. This is a Sunni Arab nation run by its Alawite minority. The Alawites are another of those small Islamic sects that are seen as somewhat heretical by the mainstream Sunnis. The Alawites are often lumped in with the Shia, and that’s one reason why Syria has long been an ally of Shia Iran (to provide some protection against Sunni run Iraq.) But now things are, well, difficult. The Alawite leadership of Syria has no problem with Shias running Iraq. But the Sunni Arab majority in Syria does. So, to keep the peace, the Syrian leaders do not crack down on the enthusiastic support many Syrians Sunnis are giving to the al Qaeda and Sunni Arab terrorists in Iraq. So while the United States wants the Syrian leadership to crack down on Syrian support for violence in Iraq, the U.S. doesn’t want to overthrow the Alawite leadership of Syria. Because that would likely result in a Sunni Arab dictator taking over, and making things worse.

URL: http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/2005117225612.asp